Forex analysis

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  • 05:07:06 pm on December 3, 2008 | # |

    EUR and GBP trade lower again after short squeeze yesterday. Trading nervous ahead of tomorrow’s CB meetings.

    Oil price fall continues to pressure CAD. RBNZ on tap tonight - will they cut 150 bps?

    • US Weekly ABC Consumer Confidence fell to -54 vs. -53 expected and -52 the previous week
    • Australia Nov. AiG Performance of Services Index fell to 37.8 vs. 42.1 in Oct.
    • UK Nov. Nationwide Consumer Confidence fell to 50 vs. 54 expected and 56 in Oct.
    • Australia Q3 GDP grew 0.1% QoQ vs. 0.2% expected
    • Norway Nov. PMI out at 40.7 expected

    The recent EURCHF sell-off appears to have been a one-day wonder so far, but we suspect that the pair could resume the sell-off in the coming days as the ECB meeting comes and goes. Look for a close back below the 21-day moving average (now around 1.5200) and a retry through the rising trendline as a trigger that the sell-off is ready to resume. Key resistance comes in at the 1.5385 if the top isn’t already in here.

     

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